By Raj Singh
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset

After several years of solid growth, the global economy is confronting a new policy-driven shock. The swift and stringent trade policies introduced by the new U.S. administration pose one of the most formidable challenges, threatening the established norms of global free trade and the dominance of the U.S. dollar. This negative shock is intensified by heightened uncertainty, stemming from the rapid-fire policy announcements from the U.S., which are reverberating across the global economic landscape.

• The global economy confronts upheaval as the U.S. looks to restructure international trade.
  U.S. import tariffs have weakened the U.S. economy, while global economies sought to shore up their foundations to withstand the crosscurrents. Uncertainty is extraordinarily elevated and unlikely to clear immediately.
• U.S. recession odds have spiked. Growth boosting policy measures are required to avoid recession.

By Raj Singh
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset

By Raj Singh
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset

By Raj Singh
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset

• A complex global picture is emerging, with significant divergence in growth and policy actions.
  While the U.S. continues to thrive, China and Europe are struggling. Proposed U.S. import tariffs threaten to intensify these diverging fortunes, reinforcing the U.S. exceptionalism theme. Policymakers will need to respond accordingly.
• The U.S. economy remains resilient, but with pockets of weakness requiring careful watch.

By Raj Singh
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset

With the U.S. Presidential elections largely settled, investors are shifting focus back to macroeconomic and policy landscapes. The U.S. economy shows resilience, supported by strong consumer spending and healthy corporate balance sheets. The corporate sector remains robust, with ample cash reserves, providing a buffer against potential revenue declines. Prospects for deregulation under the new administration are boosting business sentiment.

Please read the Chinese edition of this article here.

• A globally synchronized downturn produces a globally synchronized policy easing.
  As global growth has weakened, policymakers have started to respond. The U.S. Federal Reserve is committed to avoiding recession, while China’s recent policy measures also raise the odds of a global soft landing.
• The U.S. economy: Slowdown does not imply recession.

Please read the Chinese edition of this article here.